The 2014 Lewin Studies (AOA supervised), the most recent and comprehensive studies to date, found a 30% excess capacity of practicing optometrists for 2012. Two earlier studies had predicted future surpluses (Abt. Associates and RAND Corporation) but were ignored. Since the 2014 Lewin reports graduation rates continued to rise and are now (As of July, 2018) 70% higher than in 1991 (1,900 vs. 1,115). When the Lewin study was conducted the graduation rate was 47% higher than the 1991 benchmark graduation rate.

Despite three prior studies and rapid increase in enrollments, the schools and the AOA continued to state demand for future optometrists was strong to its members and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Lewin Study Finds Large Optometry Surpluses – an Editorial Analysis by Dr. Kenneth J. Myers (PDF)

With a healthcare system in transition, optimistic ODs hope for expansion of our primary care responsibilities. While this is possible and perhaps even likely, the facts — facts supported by every workforce study going back to 1995 — suggest that there are already more than enough ODs to fill increased needs for the foreseeable future.

Charles Mullen (www.charlesmullen.com) recently published a guest editorial by Kenneth Myers that explored the issue in depth. It also examined the 2014 Eye Care Workforce Study conducted by Lewin Associates. Know that Mullen and Myers are among the most important and influential leaders in the modern history of our profession and neither have any axe to grind other than concern for our profession and patients.

In the editorial, Myers notes that since 2006, six new optometry schools have opened and three more are still planned. Since 1985, the number of graduates has increased from slightly over 1,000 to 1,600 this year, with more to come.

Consider all of this against the backdrop of an unstable healthcare environment, crippling student debt, shrinking applicant pools and the likelihood of technology-driven increases in practitioner efficiency. The impact on the profession remains to be seen, but from where I stand, the future is far less bright than it was when I started.

Optometry today is dramatically more advanced than it was in 1985. We owe that to the vision, commitment and tenacity of those who came before us. Likewise, we all share responsibility to those who will come after us. When asked about the future of our profession, honesty is not only the best policy, but it can also be a powerful tool in helping to balance the needs of the profession and our patients.

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Off the Cuff: When is Enough Way Too Much? was written by Arthur B. Epstein, OD, FAAO and Chief Medical Editor of Optometric Physician. It was published September 29, 2014.

For some time, the ABCMO Board has been concerned over evidence of growing surplus numbers of optometrists.

In 1997, following graduation rates around 1,127 for many years, the AOA sponsored National Optometry Census was released and then analyzed in the Abt. Manpower Study in 2000, also sponsored by the AOA. The Abt. Study concluded the supply of optometrists equaled demand in 1997 but the graduation rate of 1,127 would create future surpluses. In 1997 the optometry density was 11.5 licensed optometrists per 100,000.

Since 1997, new schools opened, three more are being organized and a fourth is being considered. This year, graduates will approach 1,600 and increase to nearly 1,900 by 2018. Meanwhile, applications per seat have declined and these high enrollments will lead to record densities of 15-17 per 100,000,

The editorial concludes optometry, unlike medicine, dentistry and podiatry, has a growing surplus of practitioners chiefly produced by:

• Overly optimistic forecasts of optometry manpower needs.
• Freely available guaranteed student loans.
• Accreditation standards lacking quantitative clinical training requirements.

The Optometry Surplus: A Quantitative Determination Of Excess Densities – by Dr. Kenneth J. Myers (PDF)

Unlike medicine and dentistry, optometry education does not receive federal support for clinical education. This new educational model would award the OD degree in 3-years, federal-supported residency training in the 4th year prior to licensing and then board certification in general practice. This would require less student debt; clinical training facilities would receive federal support; and graduates would be board eligible in general practice without additional training.

Read the full paper:

A New Educational Model – by Dr. Charles Mullen (PDF)